Resilience and Robustness of Dynamic Manufacturing Supply Networks

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  • Submissions now open for ICMS Edinburgh Workshop 11-13th January
    http://icms.org.uk/workshops/risk

  • Group meeting -
    A two day group meeting at the University of Bristol. The first day consisted of discussion groups to finish ongoing research and kick of new projects.
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  • Group meeting -
    The group meeting at Coventry University for presenting and discussion of ongoing research.
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  • Daniel Ritterskamp's Nottingham visit -
    Daniel Ritterskamp from the University of Bristol spend one day in Nottingham.

  • Paper accepted-A Fuzzy Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model for Strategic Risk Management in Global Production Networks.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.05.017
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  • Guven Demirel accepted Lecturer position at University of Essex

  • Group meeting -
    The group meeting at Nottingham
    University for  presenting  results to industrial partners and discussing ongoing research.
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  • Paper submitted - A fuzzy scenario-based optimisation of robustness and resilience of a supply network.
    The paper considers a real world supply network (SN) consisting of a manufacturer and two types of suppliers, standard and emergency suppliers. A customer forecasts its demand in terms of requested quantity and time, but can change it anytime. The possible changes are uncertain and specified using linguistic terms. Changes in requested quantity can be Less, About the same and More than forecasted, while changes in requested time can be Earlier, At about the same time and Later than forecasted. The possible changes are modelled in nine corresponding fuzzy scenarios with associated probabilities of occurrences. In order to satisfy customer demand, the manufacturer needs to obtain required quantity of materials in time, either from a standard or emergency supplier. Three SN performance measures are considered, including total cost, robustness and resilience. Measures of robustness and resilience relevant to the SN under consideration are proposed. A novel fuzzy multi-objective optimisation model is developed, in which each objective considers one of the SN performances. Various experiments are carried out to analyse the impact of uncertainty and multi objectives on SN cost, robustness and resilience. Including the objectives of maximising SN robustness and resilience improves SN performance, but, as expected, at a higher cost. It is shown that SN robustness and resilience can be improved, particularly in the case when the ratio of unit purchasing cost from the emergency suppliers to unit surplus cost of material is sufficiently high.

  • Paper submitted - Surveillance on Supply Networks: the Likelihood of Detection.
    Assuring quality in supply networks remains challenging, as evidenced by the continuing high prevalence of product recalls. We consider a supply network surveillance program for major retailers, brand owners and manufacturers that seek to ensure a low likelihood of product non-conformance being detected subsequently by an authority such as a government agency. We develop and analyze a model to capture the impact of supply network characteristics and dynamics on surveillance success. We show that longer lead times render surveillance more successful whereas larger batch sizes have an opposite effect. Surveillance is shown to be difficult but still essential for low rates of non-conformance. We show that the optimal policy for a prime entity is a pure inspection strategy with a sample size determined by risk preferences. For an external authority, the optimal inspection frequency has a maximum at a low but non-zero non-conformance rate. A cost/benefit threshold is identified beyond which the optimal authority policy is to cease inspection when network surveillance is enforceable. Generalizations of the approach are presented for different network topologies and types of processes. Important implications for practice are highlighted for all major supply network stakeholders.

  • Guven Demirel's Bristol visit -
    Guven Demirel from University of Nottingham has spent a week in Bristol to finalise ongoing work about bifurcations in a triadic supply network motif and initiate new research ideas.

The project "Resilience and Robustness of Dynamic Manufacturing Supply Networks" is funded by the EPSRC under grant number EP/K031686/1